alternative energy

Tree fungus that produces chemical similar to diesel fuel discovered in Patagonia

Alex Soojung-Kim Pang — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 14:47:53 -0800

Description

Scientists have found a tree fungus "in the Patagonian rainforest, [which] naturally produces a mixture of chemicals that is remarkably similar to diesel." According to the Guardian,

"This is the only organism that has ever been shown to produce such an important combination of fuel substances," said Gary Strobel, a plant scientist from Montana State University who led the work. "We were totally surprised to learn that it was making a plethora of hydrocarbons."

This is significant because the fungus could "provide green fuel that can be pumped directly into tanks, scientists say."

The fungus, called Gliocladium roseum and discovered growing inside the ulmo tree (Eucryphia cordifolia) in northern Patagonia, produces a range of long-chain hydrocarbon molecules that are virtually identical to the fuel-grade compounds in existing fossil fuels.
Details of the concoction, which Strobel calls "mycodiesel", will be published in the November issue of the journal Microbiology. "The results were totally unexpected and very exciting and almost every hair on my arms stood on end," said Strobel.

Many simple organisms, such as algae, are already known to make chemicals that are similar to the long-chain hydrocarbons present in transport fuel but, according to Strobel, none produce the explosive hydrocarbons with the high energy density of those in mycodiesel. Strobel said that the chemical mixture produced by his fungus could be used in a modern diesel engine without any modification.

Another advantage of the G. roseum fungus is its ability to eat up cellulose. This is a compound that, along with lignin, makes up the cell walls in plants and is indigestible by most animals. As such, it makes up much of the organic waste currently discarded, such as stalks and sawdust.

Converting this plant waste into useful fuels is a major goal for the biofuel industry, which currently uses food crops such as corn and has been blamed for high food prices. Normally, cellulosic materials are treated with enzymes that first convert it to sugar, with microbes then used to ferment the sugar into ethanol fuel.

In contrast, G. roseum consumes cellulose directly to produce mycodiesel. "Although the fungus makes less mycodiesel when it feeds on cellulose compared to sugars, new developments in fermentation technology and genetic manipulation could help improve the yield," said Strobel. "In fact, the genes of the fungus are just as useful as the fungus itself in the development of new biofuels."

According to the NSF,

Strobel's discovery suggests that fungi living in ancient plants may have contributed to the natural formation of crude oil, a slow process that occurs when organic matter is subjected to high pressure and heat under layers of rock.

"Time will tell if this microbe can be developed for useful purposes for mankind," said Strobel. He envisions these fungi, or their genetic material, being used in the future to purposefully manufacture hydrocarbons for fuel.

Before that can happen, researchers must figure out how to increase hydrocarbon yields from the fungus and find ways to supply the remaining hydrocarbon components needed for complete diesel fuel.

Biomedical Sciences and Biotechnology

Source

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/nov/04/biofuels-energy
http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=112581&govDel=USNSF_51

New source for biofuels discovered

Sean Ness — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 13:08:01 -0700

Description

Physorg reports,

A newly created microbe produces cellulose that can be turned into ethanol and other biofuels, report scientists from The University of Texas at Austin who say the microbe could provide a significant portion of the nation's transportation fuel if production can be scaled up.

Along with cellulose, the cyanobacteria developed by Professor R. Malcolm Brown Jr. and Dr. David Nobles Jr. secrete glucose and sucrose. These simple sugars are the major sources used to produce ethanol.

"The cyanobacterium is potentially a very inexpensive source for sugars to use for ethanol and designer fuels," says Nobles, a research associate in the Section of Microbiology and Molecular Genetics.

Brown and Nobles say their cyanobacteria can be grown in production facilities on non-agricultural lands using salty water unsuitable for human consumption or crops.

Other key findings include:

-- The new cyanobacteria use sunlight as an energy source to produce and excrete sugars and cellulose

-- Glucose, cellulose and sucrose can be continually harvested without harming or destroying the cyanobacteria (harvesting cellulose and sugars from true algae or crops, like corn and sugarcane, requires killing the organisms and using enzymes and mechanical methods to extract the sugars)

-- Cyanobacteria that can fix atmospheric nitrogen can be grown without petroleum-based fertilizer input

They recently published their research in the journal Cellulose.

Energy

Source

http://physorg.com/news128173373.html

Cheap solar cellphone charger

Alex Soojung-Kim Pang — Mon, 03 Mar 2008 12:54:16 -0800

Description

Afrigadget reports on the development of an inexpensive solar cellphone charger as one solution to the "challenge of mobile phone charging in off grid Africa." The cost of such chargers is falling from around $100 two years ago, to $20 today. An inexpensive charger "is not only quite handy to have, but it is empowering and well suited for off-grid rural areas in Africa, California or anywhere with sunlight for that matter."

Ken Banks of Kinwankja.net elaborates:

In some rural areas, where the lack of reliable mains power might be the difference between making it worth owning a mobile or not, a small solar panel such as this could be a deal clincher. Of course, solar energy has been touted as a solution for charging mobile devices for years now, but what's interesting about this is the cost. Suddenly, it actually seems possible. And by possible, what I really mean is affordable.

My basic, no-frills ZTE phone comes in at around $22 new, putting most rival entry level handsets in the shade. And the solar panel to charge it? Add another $20. So, suddenly, for about $42 we have a works-out-of-the- box rural mobile solution. (Just one short year ago the handset alone would have come in at around that). What's more, the owner of the solar charger could earn a little extra income running a small charging business on the side. Maybe one day these panels will come as standard in Village Phone programs around the world, if they're not already.

Source

http://www.blogspot.kiwanja.net/2008/02/shedding-light-on-charging-challenge.html
http://www.afrigadget.com/2008/03/03/affordable-solar-charger-for-mobile-phones/

Scientists Would Turn Greenhouse Gas Into Gasoline - New York Times

Alex Soojung-Kim Pang — Tue, 19 Feb 2008 14:55:56 -0800

Description

The New York Times reports on a proposal to convert carbon dioxide into gasoline.

If two scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory are correct, people will still be driving gasoline-powered cars 50 years from now, churning out heat-trapping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere — and yet that carbon dioxide will not contribute to global warming.

The scientists, F. Jeffrey Martin and William L. Kubic Jr., are proposing a concept, which they have patriotically named Green Freedom, for removing carbon dioxide from the air and turning it back into gasoline.

The idea is simple. Air would be blown over a liquid solution of potassium carbonate, which would absorb the carbon dioxide. The carbon dioxide would then be extracted and subjected to chemical reactions that would turn it into fuel: methanol, gasoline or jet fuel.

This process could transform carbon dioxide from an unwanted, climate-changing pollutant into a vast resource for renewable fuels. The closed cycle — equal amounts of carbon dioxide emitted and removed — would mean that cars, trucks and airplanes using the synthetic fuels would no longer be contributing to global warming....

There is, however, a major caveat that explains why no one has built a carbon-dioxide-to-gasoline factory: it requires a great deal of energy.

To deal with that problem, the Los Alamos scientists say they have developed a number of innovations, including a new electrochemical process for detaching the carbon dioxide after it has been absorbed into the potassium carbonate solution.... Even with those improvements, providing the energy to produce gasoline on a commercial scale — say, 750,000 gallons a day — would require a dedicated power plant, preferably a nuclear one, the scientists say.

One other interesting element of this story is that while the researchers are at Los Alamos, some of the work appears to have been DIY: "The process has been tested in Dr. Kubic’s garage, in a simple apparatus that looks like mutant Tupperware."

Source

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/19/science/19carb.html

Wind-powered cellphone stations spread in Africa

Alex Soojung-Kim Pang — Thu, 07 Feb 2008 15:45:59 -0800

Description

Bergey Windpower notes the growing use of wind power in cell phone stations.

Safaricom (www.safaricom.com), headquartered in Nairobi, Kenya, is the largest cell phone provider and the most profitable company in East Africa. As they have moved to extend their service range to the rural areas of Kenya they have encountered more and more sites for their base stations where no utility power is available. The normal practice at such sites is to use two diesel generators, one operating all the time and another serving as back-up. But, diesel power is far from ideal. Supplying fuel in areas where the roads are very poor and armed escorts are sometimes required is very expensive. Also, the diesel generators are under-loaded so they are not operating very efficiently and they require more frequent maintenance.

In 2005 Safaricom contracted with Winafrique Technologies in Nairobi to design and supply pilot wind/diesel hybrid systems at three very remote base stations. The systems consisted of a Bergey 7.5 kW turbine on a 24 m (80 ft) SSV tower, sealed batteries, and an inverter. These sites were installed and monitored for one year. The results showed excellent reliability and diesel fuel savings of 70-95%. Based on these positive results, Safaricom has contracted for six more sites, and has many other wind/diesel sites in the planning stage.

They go on to describe its use in a remote town, Laisamis:

Even though Laisamis is very remote and the household income is very low, the new Safaricom base station is already handling thousands of calls a day. In fact, the lack of electricity to charge local cell phones has emerged as a barrier and Safaricom will soon add a battery charging station to their base station facility. That too will be powered by the wind. Cell phones allow children to talk to parents who have gone to work in the major cities, law enforcement to spread the word on cattle thefts, and clinicians to seek the advice of doctors.

UPDATE, September 2007: Safaricom will have over 25 sites with Bergey 7.5 kW turbines installed by the end of 2007.

AfriGadget comments that "Hybrid systems that utilize renewable energy such as wind and solar are making it possible to extend wireless service in remote areas that are not connected to grid power." More recently, the systems have been adopted in Namibia.

Source

http://www.afrigadget.com/2007/12/05/more-wind-powered-cell-phone-base-stations-in-africa/
http://www.afrigadget.com/2007/07/02/wind-powered-cell-phone-base-stations/
http://www.bergey.com/Examples/Laisamis.html

Producing clean coal via gasification technologies

Alex Soojung-Kim Pang — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 11:10:30 -0700

Description

Technologies such as coal gasification may be employed around the globe to provide the second wave of "clean" fossil fuel energy as countries turn to their own coal deposits to meet growing energy needs.

In recent years, burning coal to produce energy has fallen out of favour given the high levels of air pollution that result. Instead, natural gas has been extensively exploited as the first generation of 'cleaner' fossil fuels, so much so that it may soon join oil as the next important, must-have energy source. But with its rapid adoption have come supply constraints and wildly spiking prices, forcing countries to look for alternative sources to meet their growing energy needs.

In general, Europe is mandating the increased use of renewable energy sources (such as wind, wave, and solar). But currently, these sources are not, in most cases, as economical as fossil fuels, even at gas's fluctuating prices. Other parts of the world are looking back to nuclear energy and to other "clean" fossil fuels. The big winner in the second wave of "cleaner" fossil fuels is likely to be clean coal technology. Globally, the supply of coal is abundant, and it is currently the cheapest source of energy. Technologies such as coal gasification can clean up power plant emissions but have not been widely rolled out because of the large investment necessary and competitive oil prices over the past two decades. With higher sustained oil prices and continuing geopolitical concern around adequate supplies of oil, more countries may turn to their own abundant coal deposits via coal gasification technology to meet their growing energy needs."

This will be enabled by:

Continuing high and volatile electricity prices
Continuing supply constraints on natural gas
Increasing demand for less polluting sources of energy

Early indicators include:

Discussion about coal gasification subsidies in the US Congress

What to watch:

Levels of government support for gasification technology continue to increase.
The fate of old coal power plants nearing the end of life (decommission or upgrade?) is increasingly a topic of public discussion.

Signals

The technology behind coal-gasification ("clean coal")

Future CO2 Emission Reductions from Electricity Generation through Deployment of Carbon Capture and Storage Tech

CCPI Clean Coal Demonstrations | Wabash River Coal Gasification Repowering Project

CCPI Clean Coal Demonstrations | Tampa Electric Integrated Gasification Combined-Cycle Project

Modest Growth Ahead for Nuclear Power

Alex Soojung-Kim Pang — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 11:10:29 -0700

Description

Despite its potential to dramatically cut fossil-fuel dependency, nuclear power will probably experience only modest growth over the next two decades, driven mainly by developing economies.

Nuclear power has been the second fastest growing source of energy during the past 15 years in both the developed and the developing world, second only to natural gas in developed countries and hydroelectric in emerging nations. This rapid growth has been achieved despite a dearth of nuclear plant construction. The growth stems from efficiency gains made at existing facilities from technological improvements, experience, and increased capacity. Most plants around the world are working beyond their original operational life-spans. With adequate safety upgrades they continue to have their operational life extended. Eventually, though, most of these plants will be forced to shut down, leaving policy makers with a dilemma: should we create new nuclear capacity or find a significant amount of replacement energy from alternative sources?

In the developed world, nuclear energy is seeing a revival in interest. Surprisingly, many environmentalists are leading the charge as worries over global warming spread. (Nuclear power plants do not release carbon dioxide or any other major air pollutant, though the production of Uranium does create greenhouse gas pollution.) In addition, once operational, nuclear power is generally estimated to be the second cheapest producer of energy (second only to coal, although cost estimates vary by location and this is not true everywhere). However, siting a new nuclear facility with its catastrophic potential is extremely difficult in representative democracies due to stiff local opposition. Also, nuclear power requires enormous start-up capital. As a result, new sites are and will probably continue to be very difficult to acquire in the developed world. Instead, policy makers are likely to continue trying to extend, upgrade, and rebuild existing sites. Individual countries may follow France's example and become mostly nuclear, but these will probably be the rare exception. Overall, nuclear power production is expected to stagnate over the next 20 years in the developed world.

In the emerging world, the situation is significantly different. Local advocates have far less influence over political decisions, pollution is a secondary concern to economic growth, and the rapid development of these economies requires enormous amounts of energy. With many of the roadblocks and concerns about nuclear power less of an issue in the developing world, the appeal of nuclear power as an adequate and controllable energy supply to fuel future growth will be irresistible. The hurdle of access to proper civilian nuclear technology will keep most countries out of the nuclear arena, but those that have acquired the expertise will most likely push rapidly. As a result, nuclear power in the developing world is projected to grow at nearly 3.5% per year for the next two decades and will thus become the fastest growing energy source. Expect China, India, and South Korea to make enormous investments in nuclear power over the coming decades, helping to mitigate the demand for fossil fuels."

This will be enabled by:

Improved access to nuclear technology in the developing world
Continuation of authoritarian regimes in developing countries
Rapid industrialization of many of the largest emerging economies

Early indicators include:

India's recent nonproliferation deal with the US
Pakistan's successful establishment of military nuclear mastery
Iran's and North Korea's nuclear experimentation

What to watch:

"India announces a major upgrade to its nuclear capacity.
China's government focuses on developing domestic energy sources, mostly nuclear, to minimize outside influences on its economy.
The rate of nuclear plant decommissioning increases in the developed world.

Leaders: US, France, Japan (current)
China, South Korea, India (upcoming)"

Signals

Continuing Marginal Role for Biofuels

Alex Soojung-Kim Pang — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 11:10:29 -0700

Description

Biofuels are unlikely to become more than a marginal source of energy, but research in the area may help drive breakthroughs in other areas such as energy storage.

Biofuels as a category catches everything from ethanol to methane to pulp and paper waste. Existing biofuel and biomass technologies today account for a reasonably large amount of energy production. In the US, combustion of biomass (mostly waste from the pulp and paper industries, with a secondary source being capture of methane from landfills) generates as much energy as hydro plants and nearly twice as much as solar, geothermal, and wind combined. Although significant in aggregate, none of these sources provides the potential to scale to the much higher levels of production needed to meet increasing energy demand. As a result, despite their green attributes, existing biofuels have not excited much interest in the industry or the media.

On the other hand, considerable interest is being drawn to more experimental aspects of biofuels, and research is under way in many areas. Scientists are trying to harness photosynthesis to generate excess energy for harvesting but the indications are that this is unlikely to yield appreciable amounts of energy. Some researchers are investigating the potential of phytoplankton and other algae sources for the direct production of hydrocarbons. This avenue offers some interesting possibilities, but, as the process itself requires significant resources, it is also unlikely to generate economic quantities of fuel.

Perhaps the most promising area of research into biofuels is examining biochemical pathways for better harnessing and storage of energy. This area of research might help solve the inefficiency problems surrounding energy storage that block massive deployment of intermittent renewable energy sources such as solar and wind. Further research in this area may also help solar energy experts create more efficient solar cells by mimicking existing biological processes.

Expect biosciences research to have some profound impacts in the areas of pharmaceuticals and medical research but provide only minor advancements in the area of energy. More traditional uses of biofuels are likely to continue to meet a small but significant percentage of the world's energy needs."

This will be enabled by:

Continuing growth of bioscience research
Growing concern over sustainability in the industrialized world

Early indicators include:

Increasing investment in bioscience research in the area of pharmaceuticals

What to watch:

"Breakthroughs in biosciences research pave the way for breakthroughs in harnessing photosynthesis.
The paper and pulp industries remain healthy and grow, continuing to provide biofuels.

Leaders: Europe, US

Institutions:

Berkeley Lab
US International Energy Agency
Massachusetts Institute of Technology"

Signals

Continued Growth in Energy Consumption

Alex Soojung-Kim Pang — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 11:10:29 -0700

Description

Energy consumption may to continue to increase worldwide, with a heavy continued reliance on fossil fuels to meet the growing need.

Over the past 15 years, a period generally considered to have exhibited robust global economic growth, the consumption of energy worldwide has increased at about 1.5% per year. Forecasts for the next 20 years suggest energy consumption will grow by 2% per year, far outstripping recent growth. At this rate, the world would double its current consumption of energy in only 36 years. An increased push for greater energy efficiency in the developed world is expected to help curb growth, but the rapid industrialisation of billions of people in Asia, where energy use is less efficient, will probably continue to drive the search for more energy.

Recent price spikes in oil and natural gas suggest that the supply of these two largest energy sources is coming under strain. The expected accelerated growth of energy consumption will further tax supplies. However, the composition of energy sources will probably not vary much in the near to medium term. All current sources of energy will probably continue to be important, with a gradual shift to alternative sources in the industrialised world offset by the rapid energy consumption growth served by fossil fuels in the emerging world.

Oil has plenty of supplies to power our transportation needs for the next century, despite doomsday forecasts, but it is a finite resource and one day will need to be replaced. Coal still has plentiful reserves throughout the world, and the emergence of clean coal technologies is expected to drive a small revival of this once "dirty" fossil fuel. Natural gas is the current energy source of choice for growth, thanks to its relatively clean combustion and largely untapped supplies, but challenges remain in efficiently transporting it to market.

Despite current plentiful reserves of the three primary fossil fuels, infrastructure limitations and the desire for cleaner energy will likely make the use of alternative supplies paramount to meet the rising growth in demand. To put the demand for cleaner energy in perspective, it is estimated that by 2050 the world will need 30 TW yr (TeraWatt years) worth of carbon-free energy production to support a stable atmospheric carbon dioxide level of 400 ppm. For comparison, the world currently consumes about 12 TW yr of energy, and carbon dioxide levels are at 275 ppm. These estimated values are controversial, but even if significantly off, they still paint a picture of a dramatic need for not only more but also cleaner energy supplies.

Wind energy is currently the fastest growing energy source in the world thanks to advances in technology, but limitations on suitable sites will keep wind a modest if significant source of power. Biofuels catch a lot of interesting press, but the sheer size and scale of resources needed to generate large amounts of energy this way will probably keep it a fringe producer at best. Only nuclear and solar power have the potential to dramatically alter the energy supply landscape, as both could potentially produce enormous amounts of energy. The policy dilemma of nuclear power, abundant energy with no air pollution versus radioactive waste disposal, large upfront costs, and catastrophic accident potential, is one for legislators to debate. Expect some countries to eventually follow France's lead and "go nuclear" while the majority look elsewhere. Solar energy is currently cost prohibitive, but if technological improvements and rising prices for other energy sources allow it to become cost competitive, the whole energy landscape could change. Hydrogen and cold fusion are wildcards: are unlikely to materialise but they could have a profound impact if they did."

This will be enabled by:

"Rapid economic growth in the emerging world (especially Asia)
Higher prices for oil, leading to greater investment in oil extraction techniques and allowing supply to eventually rise to meet increased demand"

Early indicators include:

Price spikes in oil and natural gas
Increasing demand in the industrialised world for cleaner energy technologies

What to watch:

Solar energy technology breakthroughs make this clean source of power cost competitive.

Signals

Solar: The Energy Wild Card

Alex Soojung-Kim Pang — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 11:10:29 -0700

Description

Solar is the wild card of all energy sources, offering the potential to meet most of our energy needs once technological breakthroughs make the cost competitive.

Solar energy has been the great potential answer to the world's energy problems for decades now, but the technology to harness the sun has yet to arrive. If technological advances and rising oil prices continue apace, solar's potential might finally be realized within the next 20 years.

The sun is the one source that can supply most of the world's energy indefinitely. Other renewable sources can only partially help to meet our energy needs, as they lack the potential to scale to terawatts of electricity (nuclear is a partial exception, but the supply of uranium is finite as well). For all the promise of solar energy, it remains inhibited by economics -- it is currently not cost effective enough to compete with other energy sources. It has thus far been generated using expensive silicon-based solar cells, which produce the highest efficiencies but at the highest cost. Using cheaper organic materials or plastics improves the cost equation significantly but leads to much lower efficiencies and essentially the same unattractive cost-efficiency ratios. New advances, however, in thin-film and "dirty" silicon manufacturing -- in which lower-grade silicon is made more efficient -- indicate future economic parity between solar and other, non-renewable sources of energy. Over the past few decades, solar's manufacturing costs have been falling at more than three percent per year, but even at the elevated energy prices of 2005, solar energy still has a long way to go before becoming cost competitive.

One problem with solar and other intermittent renewable energy sources (like wind) is their inability to generate power around the clock and at the same levels in all locations. These challenges point to the need to capture or store energy at the production site and then transport it elsewhere for later consumption. Currently, the best medium to store and transport solar energy is hydrogen, used not as an energy source per se but as a storage medium that can be unlocked with a fuel cell. Special solar facilities that create hydrogen via hydrolysis, once cost effective, will bring new levels of cost, storage, and transport efficiency to solar power. More significantly, they will usher in the hydrogen economy. Until then, no other energy source can provide the massive energy production potential to power the hydrogen economy.

In the near term, solar energy production is likely to continue to be tied to the prevalence of government subsidies. Given its cost, even if subsidised, solar will still make up only a small fraction of the world's total energy production. Nearly all of these subsidies will be in the industrialised world. The largest consumers of new energy, the emerging world, will continue to follow the cheapest energy sources for growth. In the longer term, this could mean widespread use of decentralized solar systems as growth economies realize the cost benefits of a distributed power grid. The emerging world has the potential to leapfrog the industrialized world in developing more efficient and reliable energy infrastructures."

This will be enabled by:

"Increased spending on research, resulting in technological breakthroughs in solar energy production and storage
Increased government subsidies
Dwindling oil supplies"

Early indicators include:

"Infusion of government funds into solar energy research during the Carter Administration in the US, followed by research coming to a standstill as a result of budget cuts in the programme during the Reagan years"

What to watch:

"A renewed focus on solar research in the media indicates technological breakthroughs are being made to bridge the cost gap.
Government subsidies are once again pumped into solar production.
California's new million solar roof legislation, which would require that half of all new homes in the state come equipped with solar cells. The project is expected to bring online 3,000 MW of power by 2018.
Research breakthroughs bring down the cost of silicon-based solar cells and increase the efficiency of organic-based cells.

Leaders: Germany, Japan

Signals

Wind Energy: Growing in Competitiveness

Alex Soojung-Kim Pang — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 11:10:29 -0700

Description

Thanks to technological improvements, wind energy is likely to continue to be the fastest growing major energy source over the next several years, but it will probably not displace oil, coal, natural gas, nuclear, or hydroelectric as a top energy producer for at least the next 20 years.

Despite their promise and backing from those desiring clean energy, renewable energy sources have suffered from being uneconomical when compared to dirtier fossil fuels and a method of 'storing" energy produced, to give a constant supply regardless of external conditions, still has not been developed. Recently, though, as a result of dramatic technological improvements, including larger blades, rotating bases to align with wind direction, and automated optimisation software, wind energy has started to compete with fossil fuels in some instances and in the UK is cheaper to produce than nuclear energy. In fact, wind has become the single fastest growing energy source in the US (growing nearly 25% per year over the past 5 years) and in the world.

Still, the rapid growth of wind energy is only helping to dent the need for more fossil fuels, because its phenomenal growth rate is from a small base. (Five years ago, wind energy was competing with solar for the title of smallest producer of energy worldwide among the ten major energy sources.) In the US, the net increase in wind energy from 1998 to 2003 was just 1/20 of the net energy increase from either oil or coal over that same period and the UK wind power industry produces just over 1000mw, enough to power a quarter of the homes in London. But with world energy prices on the rise and concerns about energy security, the attractiveness of wind from an economic and environmental standpoint will continue to drive its robust adoption. Only if oil prices drop back to lower levels, massive liquefied natural gas infrastructure is built, or the global economy suffers a severe recession will the growth prospects of wind be deflated.

The emergence of wind as an economically competitive energy source has fueled the rise of numerous new wind farms around the world, but wind farm development is not without its drawbacks and opposition. Many local activists find the farms unappealing because they damage views, while others are concerned about possible damage to bird populations that stray into the propellers. Such environmental impacts, as well as concerns about noise, have been eased with larger, quieter turbines and new offshore developments. Denmark draws roughly 20% of its power from wind energy, mostly offshore, and though this is currently more expensive than land-based installations, costs are expected to decline with increased scale and technological advancement. A plan for a wind farm off the coast of Massachusetts, though slowed by local opposition, promises to supply three-fourths of the power necessary for the surrounding region at costs similar to those of more traditional energy sources.

Despite its healthy growth prospects, wind energy will not be the panacea for the world's energy problems. Many of the most obvious wind energy sites have been exploited. Marginal sites will only come online alongside advances in decentralized power grids, more economical energy storage, and more dependable energy allocation methods -- all to help alleviate wind's intermittent nature. Nonetheless, wind energy is expected to join clean coal and liquefied natural gas as the three main 'cleaner' alternatives to current energy production. If energy prices remain high, wind energy might even grow to the point of meeting 1% of the world's energy needs (up from just 0.1% today)."

This will be enabled by:

"Continued R&D investment by large entities and subsequent technological improvements, further lowering the cost of generating wind energy
Increasing local and global concern about global warming"

Early indicators include:

"Recent and continued investment of large conglomerate and energy firms in wind production, replacing many smaller independent pioneers"

What to watch:

"Growth of offshore wind farms indicates the economic feasibility of wind as an energy source even at a higher cost.
Wind energy is a large beneficiary as the debate over global warming intensifies and the public demands action.
Research is undertaken into how to mitigate the damage done to bird populations by wind farms.

Leaders: Europe and the US: Germany, Denmark, UK

Institutions:

General Electric
International Energy Agency
Sandia National Labs
Windward Engineering
US National Wind Technology Center
University of Massachusetts, Renewable Energy Research Lab
World Wind Energy Association