Energy

Coal Liquefaction Becoming Less Attractive as Alternative Fuel

Philip Cho — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 23:33:30 -0700

Description

Coal-to-liquid increasingly seems an unlikely candidate for a clean and economical alternative energy of the future. According to a recent RAND report the environmental cost of coal-to-liquid fuel remains high. Coal liquefaction produces about twice the CO2 emissions of conventional oil and carbon sequestration on a large scale has not proven technically or economically feasible on large scale. Coal-to-liquid fuel only "appears to be competitive" with crude oil if crude prices stay above $94 a barrel for an extended period. Moreover, even with carbon sequestration, "neither alternative fuel offers a path toward large long-term reductions in total carbon dioxide emissions to limit climate change."

This report follows other studies in countries such as China that have also come to equally negative conclusions, resulting in the termination of nearly all coal liquefaction projects in the country. http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR580/

Source

China's Coal Liquefaction Projects Terminated Under Threat of Bad Loans

Philip Cho — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 07:57:49 -0700

Description

In a startling move, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has terminated all but two coal liquefaction projects. According to Zhou Dadi, former director of the Energy Research Institute of the NDRC, development of the technology had proven too risky an investment as domestic expertise and equipment was simply inadequate. With an investment of 120 billion yuan (US$17.55 billion)，the combined output capacity of the existing and the planned coal-to-liquid (CTL) projects was to be about 16 million tons. In a revealing statement Zhou added that, “many small CTL projects…were financed by bank loans. It will be troublesome if the loans default, which will hurt the interests of many depositors…Small investment in coal-to-liquid projects does not make sense. Heavy investment, however, is likely to turn sour if the mid-and-small enterprises cannot be freed from the technology obstacles." Falling oil prices nailed the coffin on many of the unprofitable projects.

This is a major development that has gotten no attention outside of China. As the nation has abundant coal resources, China’s leaders originally heralded coal liquefaction technology as the last-best-hope to solve the impending energy crises that other alternatives such as nuclear power could not solve. CTL was to keep China’s factories running at break-neck speed, without which leaders fear social unrest from rising unemployment. China also cannot hope to fuel its military in anything but a short term engagement because of very limited reserves. Military leaders had hoped that CTL might assist in solving this problem.

China: Science & Technology

Source

Scientists mimic essence of plants' energy storage system

Sean Ness — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 10:22:19 -0700

Description

In a revolutionary leap that could transform solar power from a marginal, boutique alternative into a mainstream energy source, MIT researchers have overcome a major barrier to large-scale solar power: storing energy for use when the sun doesn't shine.

Until now, solar power has been a daytime-only energy source, because storing extra solar energy for later use is prohibitively expensive and grossly inefficient. With today's announcement, MIT researchers have hit upon a simple, inexpensive, highly efficient process for storing solar energy.

['Major discovery' primed to unleash solar revolution]
With Daniel Nocera's and Matthew Kanan's new catalyst, homeowners could use their solar panels during the day to power their home, while also using the energy to split water into hydrogen and oxygen for storage. At night, the stored hydrogen and oxygen could be recombined using a fuel cell to generate power while the solar panels are inactive. Graphic / Patrick Gillooly, MIT

Requiring nothing but abundant, non-toxic natural materials, this discovery could unlock the most potent, carbon-free energy source of all: the sun. "This is the nirvana of what we've been talking about for years," said MIT's Daniel Nocera, the Henry Dreyfus Professor of Energy at MIT and senior author of a paper describing the work in the July 31 issue of Science. "Solar power has always been a limited, far-off solution. Now we can seriously think about solar power as unlimited and soon."

Inspired by the photosynthesis performed by plants, Nocera and Matthew Kanan, a postdoctoral fellow in Nocera's lab, have developed an unprecedented process that will allow the sun's energy to be used to split water into hydrogen and oxygen gases. Later, the oxygen and hydrogen may be recombined inside a fuel cell, creating carbon-free electricity to power your house or your electric car, day or night.

The key component in Nocera and Kanan's new process is a new catalyst that produces oxygen gas from water; another catalyst produces valuable hydrogen gas. The new catalyst consists of cobalt metal, phosphate and an electrode, placed in water. When electricity %u2014 whether from a photovoltaic cell, a wind turbine or any other source %u2014 runs through the electrode, the cobalt and phosphate form a thin film on the electrode, and oxygen gas is produced.

Combined with another catalyst, such as platinum, that can produce hydrogen gas from water, the system can duplicate the water splitting reaction that occurs during photosynthesis.

The new catalyst works at room temperature, in neutral pH water, and it's easy to set up, Nocera said. "That's why I know this is going to work. It's so easy to implement," he said.

Energy

Source

http://www.physorg.com/news136738014.html

Turning algae from pollution to product

Janne Helin — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 05:28:40 -0700

Description

Algae has been often viewed as form of environmental pollution. Utilising algae as both food and bioenergy resource might be a big thing in future. Modifying the algae genetically could lead to major breakthrough because of synenergies in controlling CO2 pollution and providing the increasing population with nutrients.

Check the link for basics and extrapolate some trends
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algaculture#Pollution_Control

Earth Systems & Environmental Science

Source

Uncertainty in climate policy inhibits investments in cleaner technology

Tommi Ekholm — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 05:14:14 -0700

Description

The future of climate policy, more specifically the possible future emission targets, is very uncertain and therefore the impacts and incentives for mitigation actions are also uncertain. This creates a situation for e.g. electricity utilities that they should wait and see how the policies evolve instead of investing now to cleaner production capacity. However, as the scientific knowledge on the impacts of climate change and mitigation possibities and their costs are also uncertain, the policy framework has to be flexible in order to take into account new information. Therefore there should be already a guaranteed incentive to encourage early action for mitigation measures.

IIASA Workshop, 2 July 2008

Source

rapid expansion of coal-to-liquids production in China

Chisa Umemiya — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 05:05:14 -0700

Description

after successful operation of 15,000 barrels per day coal to liquid plant (CTL), China plans to make 10% of liquid hydrocarbon production from coal liquefaction by 2012C

IIASA Workshop, 2 July 2008

Source

reuters news article

Scientists aim to boost world energy supplies -- with microbes

Sean Ness — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 13:04:28 -0700

Description

Physorg reports on an upcoming experiment to "boost world energy supplies -- with microbes:"

British and Canadian scientists expect to begin trials next month (May) to find out whether microbes can unlock the vast amount of energy trapped in the world's unrecoverable heavy oil deposits. An estimated six trillion barrels of oil remain underground because the oil has become either solid or too thick to be brought to the surface at economic cost by conventional means.

However, scientists at Newcastle University, England, and the University of Calgary, Canada, have set up a company, Profero Energy Inc, to build on their recent research, which demonstrated how naturally-occurring microbes convert oil to natural gas (methane) over tens of millions of years.

The company is preparing to move on-site to begin pumping a special mixture of nutrients, dissolved in water, down an oil well above exhausted oil deposits in western Canada. If the scientists' calculations are correct, natural gas should flow back out, as the microbes thrive on the nutrients, multiply, and digest the tar-like oil at a greatly increased rate.

Energy

Source

http://physorg.com/news128692150.html

New source for biofuels discovered

Sean Ness — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 13:08:01 -0700

Description

Physorg reports,

A newly created microbe produces cellulose that can be turned into ethanol and other biofuels, report scientists from The University of Texas at Austin who say the microbe could provide a significant portion of the nation's transportation fuel if production can be scaled up.

Along with cellulose, the cyanobacteria developed by Professor R. Malcolm Brown Jr. and Dr. David Nobles Jr. secrete glucose and sucrose. These simple sugars are the major sources used to produce ethanol.

"The cyanobacterium is potentially a very inexpensive source for sugars to use for ethanol and designer fuels," says Nobles, a research associate in the Section of Microbiology and Molecular Genetics.

Brown and Nobles say their cyanobacteria can be grown in production facilities on non-agricultural lands using salty water unsuitable for human consumption or crops.

Other key findings include:

-- The new cyanobacteria use sunlight as an energy source to produce and excrete sugars and cellulose

-- Glucose, cellulose and sucrose can be continually harvested without harming or destroying the cyanobacteria (harvesting cellulose and sugars from true algae or crops, like corn and sugarcane, requires killing the organisms and using enzymes and mechanical methods to extract the sugars)

-- Cyanobacteria that can fix atmospheric nitrogen can be grown without petroleum-based fertilizer input

They recently published their research in the journal Cellulose.

Energy

Source

http://physorg.com/news128173373.html

Nanosafe: Lithium-Ion Battery

Matt Chwierut — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 12:40:09 -0700

Description

A company called Altairnano claims to have designed a Lithium-Ion battery called Nanosafe, which can provide a useful operating range of 250 miles, a full recharge time of 10 minutes, and a useful life of 12-20 years through 15,000 charge/discharge cycles.
Among the company's claims are:
Thermal stability, so it will not exhibit thermal runaway.
It can be recharged to over 80% in about 1 minute.
It's safe at temperatures up to 250 C and effective as low as -30C

"Recently, the company conducted an in-house test on their NanoSafe batteries and found that after 15,000 (not a typo) deep charge and discharge cycles, the product retained over 85 percent of its charge capacity. In theory that would push the life of these batteries beyond 40 years if you recharged everyday, though, the company admits that under real-world wear and tear a battery life of 20 years is more realistic."

Source

http://www.autobloggreen.com/2006/10/27/nanosafe-battery-tests-show-minimal-loss-of-charge-capacity/
http://www.cleantechblog.com/2008/04/battery-breakthrough.html

Europe to build 50 coal-fired power plants in the next 5 years

Sean Ness — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 12:22:46 -0700

Description

At a time when the world’s top climate experts agree that carbon emissions must be rapidly reduced to hold down global warming, Italy’s major electricity producer, Enel, is converting its massive power plant here from oil to coal, generally the dirtiest fuel on earth.

Over the next five years, Italy will increase its reliance on coal to 33 percent from 14 percent. Power generated by Enel from coal will rise to 50 percent.

And Italy is not alone in its return to coal. Driven by rising demand, record high oil and natural gas prices, concerns over energy security and an aversion to nuclear energy, European countries are expected to put into operation about 50 coal-fired plants over the next five years, plants that will be in use for the next five decades.

In the United States, fewer new coal plants are likely to begin operations, in part because it is becoming harder to get regulatory permits and in part because nuclear power remains an alternative. Of 151 proposals in early 2007, more than 60 had been dropped by the year’s end, many blocked by state governments. Dozens of other are stuck in court challenges.

The fast-expanding developing economies of India and China, where coal remains a major fuel source for more than two billion people, have long been regarded as among the biggest challenges to reducing carbon emissions. But the return now to coal even in eco-conscious Europe is sowing real alarm among environmentalists who warn that it is setting the world on a disastrous trajectory that will make controlling global warming impossible.

They are aghast at the renaissance of coal, a fuel more commonly associated with the sooty factories of Dickens novels, and one that was on its way out just a decade ago.

There have been protests here in Civitavecchia, at a new coal plant in Germany, and at one in the Czech Republic, as well as at the Kingsnorth power station in Kent, which is slated to become Britain’s first new coal-fired plant in more than a decade.

Europe’s power station owners emphasize that they are making the new coal plants as clean as possible. But critics say that “clean coal” is a pipe dream, an oxymoron in terms of the carbon emissions that count most toward climate change. They call the building spurt shortsighted.

“Building new coal-fired power plants is ill conceived,” said James E. Hansen, a leading climatologist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. “Given our knowledge about what needs to be done to stabilize climate, this plan is like barging into a war without having a plan for how it should be conducted, even though information is available.

“We need a moratorium on coal now,” he added, “with phase-out of existing plants over the next two decades.”

Earth Systems & Environmental Science

Source

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/23/world/europe/23coal.html?hp

Small municipal plants could be the future for solar power

Sean Ness — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 15:20:06 -0700

Description

Writing on Nanosolar’s blog, CEO Martin Roscheisen has unveiled the next prong in his firm’s business plan — a focus on municipal solar power plants of 2 - 10 megawatts in size. The idea is to build 10 acre lots on the outskirts of small cities that could feed into the municipal power grid directly.

Each lot, consisting of several rows of solar panels mounted on rails above ground, could provide up to 2 megawatts, enough to serve 1,000 homes. The panels would be mounted on rails to prevent them from affecting the surrounding wildlife and vegetation.

Nanosolar’s scheme could be scaled up to supply the needs of larger cities — for instance, 5 lots, which would generate 10 megawatts of electricity, could serve 5,000 homes. Unlike coal-fired plants, which typically take 10 - 15 years to build, solar power plants can be done in as little as 12 months — and much more cheaply.

Though Rosencheisen acknowledged the appeal of rooftop arrays, which solar installers like SolarCity, Sun Run and Sungevity focus on, he also criticized them as a business “that’s difficult to scale rapidly in a truly meaningful way,” and “a somewhat more expensive proposition.” Imagine having to hire a contractor to crawl around your roof to install an expensive array or — worse yet — having to set it up yourself, he noted irreverentially.

This small plant approach, though new to the U.S., has already been widely implemented throughout Europe and Asia in what Rosencheisen called a “silent revolution” that has yet to be picked up on by the mainstream press, and that is too often criticized by utility executives as being too costly or unrealistic. “It works, it is economic, and it is possible now,” he said.

Nanosolar has gotten plenty of attention for its claim that it can sell its cells for as low as 99 cents per watt, low enough to be competitive with non-renewable energy sources, as well as recently raising over $50 million more from EDF Energies Nouvelles. However, there are a number of other, less-sung companies that have either implied or outright stated that they have a similar game plan for small-scale power plants.

SolFocus, for example, makes large solar concentrator panels, which use mirrors to focus more light onto highly efficient solar photovoltaics. Its initial product isn’t designed for rooftop installation, but would work perfectly on open spaces near facilities that need modest amounts of power — such as universities or off-grid villages. It raised $63.6 million last year to build its panels in the U.S. and, through its new subsidiary SolFocus Europe, across the Atlantic.

In fact, the move to build small has swept most categories of solar power, as companies have come to realize that they can thus avoid most of the bureaucratic snags involved in building plants that produce over 50 megawatts. Furthermore, by grouping their panels into small lots, they’ve been able to grab small tracts of land on the edges of cities and towns, or on land that can be dual-purposed like farms. A secondary advantage is the ability to hook into the existing power grid without the modifications required to channel power from a large plant.

Another example is Cool Earth Solar, a startup based in Livermore, Calif. that hews to the “cheaper is better” model, using inexpensive reflective balloons to concentrate light on cells. It plans to suspend its balloons on cable-bound arrays 12-14 feet above active farmland, letting sunlight strike both the solar cells and crops beneath. The firm claims that it can produce electricity for 18 cents a watt, and hopes to ramp up its production of balloon concentrators to 50 megawatts by next year.

And there’s Infinia, a company that just raised its second round to $57 million, which specializes in the production of 3 kilowatt dishes that, lumped into groups, will generate 1-10 megawatts in small-scale projects. Finally, in the solar thermal category, there’s eSolar, which just snagged $130 million from Google, Oak Investment and Idealab to pursue a similar approach — building a number of small plants that produce up to 33 megawatts each.

The only category to have mostly stayed away from this trend is expensive silicon-based solar, which is generally relegated to rooftop installations. Yet even there a few exceptions are already starting to appear. OptiSolar, for example, a Hayward, Calif., based startup, makes somewhat less expensive thin-film solar cells. It last year announced plans to build a 40 megawatt solar power installation near Sarnia, in Ontario, Canada, and has since announced several more of a similar size.

Source

http://venturebeat.com/2008/04/23/small-municipal-plants-could-be-the-future-for-solar-power/

Powering African Schools with Playground Toys

Alex Soojung-Kim Pang — Fri, 21 Mar 2008 07:37:14 -0700

NOTE: This content was aggregated from RSS feed. Original source is http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/Afrigadget/~3/255552375/

Afrigadget reports on a project to develop playground equipment that generates electricity "that can be used to power school classrooms in Africa."

As BBC quotes him,

"The current need for electricity in sub-Saharan Africa is staggering. Without power development is extremely difficult. The potential for this product is huge and the design could be of benefit to numerous communities in Africa and beyond."

Afrigadget adds,
The idea came about after travels to East Africa, where he taught at a school and was inspired by the students. Daniel developed the see-saw power design as part of his final year at Coventry University. He has calculated that five to 10 minutes use on the see-saw could generate enough electricity to light a classroom for an evening.

Africa: Science & Technology

Buckyballs can hold nearly-metallic densities of hydrogen

Alex Soojung-Kim Pang — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 21:00:00 -0700

NOTE: This content was aggregated from RSS feed. Original source is http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2008-03/ru-tbs032008.php

EurekAlert reports:

Research featured on the March cover of Nano Letters finds that tiny carbon capsules called buckyballs are strong enough to hold volumes of hydrogen nearly as dense as those found at the center of Jupiter. Using a computer model, materials scientists at Rice University found some buckyballs were capable of holding hydrogen volumes so dense as to be almost metallic....

"Based on our calculations, it appears that some buckyballs are capable of holding volumes of hydrogen so dense as to be almost metallic," said lead researcher Boris Yakobson, professor of mechanical engineering and materials science at Rice. "It appears they can hold about 8 percent of their weight in hydrogen at room temperature, which is considerably better than the federal target of 6 percent."...

Hydrogen is the lightest element in the universe, and it is very difficult to store in bulk. For hydrogen cars to be competitive with gasoline-powered cars, they need a comparable range and a reasonably compact fuel system. It's estimated that a hydrogen-powered car with a suitable range will require a storage system with densities greater than those found in pure, liquid hydrogen....

Using a computer model, Yakobson's research team has tracked the strength of each atomic bond in a buckyball and simulated what happened to the bonds as more hydrogen atoms were packed inside. Yakobson said the model promises to be particularly useful because it is scalable, that is it can calculate exactly how much hydrogen a buckyball of any given size can hold, and it can also tell scientists how overstuffed buckyballs burst open and release their cargo.

Oak Ridge National Laboratory - ORNL study shows hybrid effect on power distribution

Sean Ness — Thu, 13 Mar 2008 10:42:45 -0700

Description

ORNL study shows hybrid effect on power distribution

OAK RIDGE, Tenn., March 12, 2008 %u2014 A growing number of plug-in hybrid electric cars and trucks could require major new power generation resources or none at all%u2014 depending on when people recharge their automobiles.

A recent Oak Ridge National Laboratory study, featured in the current issue of the ORNL Review examined how an expected increase in ownership of hybrid electric cars and trucks will affect the power grid depending on what time of day or night the vehicles are charged.

Some assessments of the impact of electric vehicles assume owners will charge them only at night, said Stan Hadley of ORNL's Cooling, Heating and Power Technologies Program.

"That assumption doesn't necessarily take into account human nature," said Hadley, who led the study. "Consumers' inclination will be to plug in when convenient, rather than when utilities would prefer. Utilities will need to create incentives to encourage people to wait. There are also technologies such as 'smart' chargers that know the price of power, the demands on the system and the time when the car will be needed next to optimize charging for both the owner and the utility that can help too."

In an analysis of the potential impacts of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles projected for 2020 and 2030 in 13 regions of the United States, ORNL researchers explored their potential effect on electricity demand, supply, infrastructure, prices and associated emission levels. Electricity requirements for hybrids used a projection of 25 percent market penetration of hybrid vehicles by 2020 including a mixture of sedans and sport utility vehicles. Several scenarios were run for each region for the years 2020 and 2030 and the times of 5 p.m. or 10:00 p.m., in addition to other variables.

The report found that the need for added generation would be most critical by 2030, when hybrids have been on the market for some time and become a larger percentage of the automobiles Americans drive. In the worst-case scenario%u2014if all hybrid owners charged their vehicles at 5 p.m., at six kilowatts of power%u2014up to 160 large power plants would be needed nationwide to supply the extra electricity, and the demand would reduce the reserve power margins for a particular region's system.

The best-case scenario occurs when vehicles are plugged in after 10 p.m., when the electric load on the system is at a minimum and the wholesale price for energy is least expensive. Depending on the power demand per household, charging vehicles after 10 p.m. would require, at lower demand levels, no additional power generation or, in higher-demand projections, just eight additional power plants nationwide.

For more information on this study and other energy-related research at ORNL go to www.ornl.gov/Review. Oak Ridge National Laboratory is operated by UT-Battelle for the U.S. Department of Energy.

Source

http://www.ornl.gov/info/press_releases/get_press_release.cfm?ReleaseNum...

U.S. Grad student invents gravity lamp

Matt Daniels — Thu, 28 Feb 2008 20:08:13 -0800

Description

A U.S. graduate student won second place in a "Greener Gadgets Conference" competition inventing a floor lamp powered by gravity.

Clay Moulton of Springfield, Va., who received his master's of science degree last year from Virginia Tech, created the lamp as a part of his master's thesis. The LED lamp, named Gravia, is an acrylic column a little more than 4 feet high. The entire column glows when activated by electricity generated by the slow, silent fall of a mass that spins a rotor.

The light output of 600-800 lumens lasts about four hours.

To "turn on" the lamp, the user moves weights from the bottom to the top of the lamp and into a mass sled near the top. The sled begins its gentle glide down and, within a few seconds, the LEDs are illuminated.

"It's more complicated than flipping a switch," said Moulton, "but can be an acceptable, even enjoyable routine, like winding a beautiful clock or making good coffee."

Moulton estimates Gravia's mechanisms will last more than 200 years.

A patent is pending on the Gravia lamp.

Physics & Space Science

Source

http://www.physorg.com/news122622236.html

Wireless Power

Matt Daniels — Thu, 28 Feb 2008 19:59:52 -0800

Description

Wireless power technology transmits electricity to devices without the use of cables

Impact: Any low-power device, such as a cell phone, iPod, or laptop, could recharge automatically simply by coming within range of a wireless power source, eliminating the need for multiple cables—and perhaps, eventually, for batteries.

Context: Eliminating the power cord would make today’s ubiquitous portable electronics truly wireless. A number of researchers and startups are making headway in this growing field.

The researchers built two resonant copper coils and hung them from the ceiling, about two meters apart. When they plugged one coil into the wall, alternating current flowed through it, creating a magnetic field. The second coil, tuned to the same frequency and hooked to a light bulb, resonated with the magnetic field, generating an electric current that lit up the bulb--even with a thin wall between the coils.

So far, the most effective setup consists of 60-centimeter copper coils and a 10-megahertz magnetic field; this transfers power over a distance of two meters with about 50 percent efficiency. The team is looking at silver and other materials to decrease coil size and boost efficiency. "While ideally it would be nice to have efficiencies at 100 percent, realistically, 70 to 80 percent could be possible for a typical application," says Soljačić.

Physics & Space Science

Source

http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?ch=specialsections&sc=emerging08&id=20248

NASA Details Cash Prizes for Space Privatization

Matt Daniels — Wed, 30 Jan 2008 13:14:23 -0800

Description

NASA announced in 2005 the first two cash prizes offered as part of the agency's Centennial Challenges program. Its mission is to encourage the commercialization of space transportation.

In the $50,000 2005 Tether Challenge, teams will compete to make the strongest tether of a specified diameter. Tethers will be stretched until they break, and winners will advance in a March Madness-like bracket system. The winner must then beat NASA's "house tether," made of existing material, to snare the cash.

The 2005 Beam Power Challenge will give $50,000 to the team that can use wireless technology to lift a weight off the ground. This technology might ultimately be used to build a space elevator that would beam payloads off the planet.

The prizes, which mark a subtle but important turning point in how NASA does business, are designed in part to help meet the ultimate goal of returning Americans to the Moon by 2020 and then sending them on to Mars under a vision laid out last year by President Bush.

Physics & Space Science

Source

http://www.space.com/news/050323_centennial_challenge.html

Malwaian Sugar and Yeast Power Generator

Alex Soojung-Kim Pang — Thu, 17 Jan 2008 06:31:41 -0800

NOTE: This content was aggregated from RSS feed. Original source is http://www.afrigadget.com/2007/11/29/malawian-invents-a-power-source-made-for-africa/

Afrigadget reports on:

a prototype power source made specifically for Africa. It generates power using sugar and yeast for up to 8 hours at a time.

Mobile phones are big in Africa, however it’s a real challenge to power them. How about night time electrical lighting, rather than paraffin lamps. Of course, in Africa we can think of all types of applications that this device could be used for.

The generator was invented by Malawian Dr. Cedrick Ngalande.

Increasing Role for Liquified Natural Gas

Alex Soojung-Kim Pang — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 11:10:30 -0700

Description

If construction of LNG transportation infrastructure accelerates along with demand, natural gas could, within the next 50 years, join oil as the second essential energy commodity.

Natural gas (methane) is by far the cleanest-burning fossil fuel. Given its global abundance and cleaner emissions, it has become the power generation source of choice for industrialised nations. But its transportation poses a challenge: because methane is a gas, it must be chilled to extreme temperatures to condense it into a liquid (liquefied natural gas or LNG) for transport. A widespread transportation infrastructure does not exist today, and the cost of building this infrastructure has been a significant retardant to the use of methane as an energy source. Given the rising demand for natural gas and the constrained supply due to a dearth of infrastructure, prices have spiked dramatically.

Demand for energy will probably continue to rise, and demand for "clean energy" will probably rise faster still, creating brisk growth in the demand for natural gas. A rapid increase in the rate of infrastructure construction is a likely response to the growth in demand. This would help alleviate some supply constraints and could result in natural gas becoming interchangeable with oil in the commodity markets. Over the next 50 years, natural gas could gradually come to could mimic oil's price volatility, which would impact on economies around the world."

This will be enabled by:

"Continued innovation in natural gas exploration and extraction techniques
Continued demand by consumers for cleaner sources of energy
Continued regulatory approval for natural gas transportation infrastructure projects
Acceleration of construction of natural gas transportation infrastructure
Continued high energy prices, driving faster investment into natural gas exploration, development, and transportation"

Early indicators include:

Dramatic growth in consumption of natural gas over the past 10 years
Price volatility of natural gas over the past few years

What to watch:

Growth rates of natural gas consumption in the world continue to escalate relative to other energy sources.
Significant new natural gas pipeline and LNG port construction projects are announced.
Russia leverages its vast wealth of natural gas and oil deposits to significantly revive and grow its political and economic clout in the world.

Signals

Growing Consumer Demand for Energy Efficiency

Alex Soojung-Kim Pang — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 11:10:30 -0700

Description

Consumers in industrialised nations may start a small but significant movement by demanding increasing energy efficiency.

Currently, when energy prices rise as a result of increased energy demand, the world’s response is to increase the supply of energy. Only when a major supply crisis hits are demand-side initiatives (like conservation) actively pushed by governments. But even without a supply crisis, a growing group of consumers may precipitate a small but significant demand-side revolution emphasising greater energy efficiency.

Whether to reduce pollution or the impact of human activity on climate change, decrease reliance on foreign energy sources, or just to save money, consumers may increasingly opt for greater energy efficiency when making purchasing decisions. Indeed, higher energy prices will probably make many energy-saving technologies the better investment. A second lever of influence will be political pressure. Politicians may find increasing pressure on them to pass energy efficiency laws as the result of democratic aggregation of like-minded individuals. The legislation could cover tougher building codes, the regulation of fuel efficiency, and tax and subsidy incentives aimed at more efficient use of energy.

Whilst the demand-side pressure for efficiency may be successful in the industrialised world, it is most likely to be consumers in the developing world who will account for the greatest increase in energy consumption. The developing world would thus maintain pressure on supplies and consequently prices. The continuing upward trend in prices could, in turn, help to maintain the momentum for energy conservation leading to the development of energy efficient technologies and practices.

Implications:
* Potential for greater energy efficiency to become a key design criterion for many consumer and commercial goods
* Potential for more regulations to be passed at all levels of government mandating greater energy efficiency
* Potential for rapidly developing economies (like China) to be viewed unfavorably by consumers and politicians alike for their rampant consumption of energy and the resulting pollution and price increases

Early Indicators:
* Initial success of hybrid automobiles despite their costing significantly more than gas-fueled autos

What to Watch:
* Energy prices continue their long-term trend toward gradual increases with volatile spikes and collapses.
* Adoption of hybrid automobile technology becomes mainstream.
* Governments begin to promulgate more energy efficiency regulations.

Parallels/Precedents:
* The US Environmental Protection Agency's development of its Energy Star rating system
* Increased refrigerator efficiency in the US over the past two decades, first with stringent 1993 regulations that nearly halved energy use, and then again in 2001, when models became even more efficient

Enablers/drivers:
* Continually rising energy prices
* Development of new energy-saving technologies
* Continued improvement of miniaturisation technologies

Signals

Synfuels as a Real Alternative to Oil

Alex Soojung-Kim Pang — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 11:10:30 -0700

Description

Price spikes and geopolitical concern over secure oil supplies could motivate increasing investment in synfuels and its exploitation by large energy companies.

Synthetic fuels (called synfuels) are one of very few alternatives to oil-based transportation fuels (hydrogen and biodiesel are others). Synfuel technology involves converting non-oil fossil fuels (such as coal, natural gas, shale, or oil sands) into fuel. By some estimates, both Canada (with its Athabasca oil sands) and the US (with its Green River Basin shale deposits) have more reserves of oil than Saudi Arabia. The process of synfuel production is significantly more expensive than drilling for oil, but recent price spikes and geopolitical concern over secure oil supplies are driving many countries to consider investment in synfuels. Indeed, Canada has been investing in its oil sands for decades and currently supplies 10% of the North American oil market (a percentage that is growing rapidly). The Chinese, who are keen to develop secure fuel resources, are also investing in these Canadian fields. Advanced countries with large reserves of non-oil carbon-based deposits (such as the US) could become a net exporter of fuels after decades of infrastructure development.

The nascent synfuel industry and the existing oil industry are economically enmeshed. The main factor inhibiting large-scale investment in synfuel is the low price of oil. If prices rise, synfuel may attract more investment, but the threat this would pose to long-term demand for oil might depress the oil price again. Since most large energy companies have been cut off from new oil fields by nationalised oil empires, they may be keen to exploit this opportunity. Oil will not disappear, but the parallel development of synfuels may help regulate its price. Canada is spearheading the development of synfuels. The US and/or other advanced countries with large deposits of non-oil fossil fuels may follow.

Implications:
* Potential for lower, more stable oil prices
* Revitalization of energy giants cut off from new oil fields
* Potential reduction (at best) or shifting of geopolitical conflicts and alliances
* Rebirth of the mining industry in advanced countries

Early Indicators:
* Rapid growth of synfuel production from Canada’s oil sands

What to Watch:
* Production of synfuels from Canada’s oil sands grows from the current 1 million barrels a day to 2 million a day by 2010, rising to 3 million by 2020 and later to as much as 5 million for decades to come.
* Governments increase investment in exploring synfuels as an alternative to oil.

Parallels/Precedents:
* Germany's development of a synfuels industry to fuel its armies during World Wars I and II in response to its oil supplies being largely cut off

Enablers/drivers:
* Sustained high oil prices
* Large investment from national governments willing to establish a synfuels industry
* Continuing geopolitical turmoil in oil-producing regions

Signals

Niche Adoption of Hydrogen Fuel Cells

Alex Soojung-Kim Pang — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 11:10:30 -0700

Description

Although the 'hydrogen economy' is decades away, hydrogen-based fuel cells may be increasingly applied in niche areas.

Hydrogen has recently received a lot of press as a clean alternative to oil-based automotive fuels. Pundits talk of today's oil economy transforming into tomorrow's hydrogen economy. However, the cost of making hydrogen fuel and the pollution that results, as well as the enormous vested economic interests in today's oil infrastructure, will make the hydrogen economy unlikely to appear on a mass scale soon. What is more likely is that hydrogen will replace oil as the major transportation fuel only in small regions with abundant access to renewable energy (such as Iceland) or with centralized transportation authorities with easy access to natural gas pipelines (like inner city bus lines).

Hydrogen can be created via either of two processes: by stripping hydrogen out of hydrocarbons or by electrolysis (applying electricity to break water down into hydrogen and oxygen). Both processes require additional hydrocarbons (either directly as a source or to generate the electricity needed for electrolysis), resulting in no net savings of hydrocarbons. The only way hydrogen truly replaces oil cleanly is if renewable energy sources are used to generate the electricity needed for electrolysis. Given the amount of extra electricity that would be needed for this process and the uncompetitive costs of renewable electricity to meet this need, the hydrogen economy is unlikely to materialise in large developed nations. In fact, the wide-scale replacement of oil with hydrogen will probably not occur in the industrialised world until solar power becomes cost competitive with conventional sources of electric power; even when this occurs, it will take decades to replace the existing oil infrastructure. However, small countries or regions that have ample access to renewable energy (like Iceland's ample supply of geothermal power) could create an isolated hydrogen economy.

And although a global hydrogen economy is unlikely soon, hydrogen-powered fuel cells will probably see adoption in other niche areas. The first large market is likely to be for standby power generation for office buildings and hospitals that need back-up energy during blackouts, as well as rural homes that want to live off the grid. Here, the requirement of only small amounts of hydrogen will help to alleviate the high cost of creating it, and fuel cells could be more efficient than existing diesel and other generators run on conventional oil-based fuels.

Hydrogen-based fuel cells also offer potential as a stored power source for small electronic gadgets. The ability to refill a hydrogen battery instead of replace existing batteries has strong appeal. Currently, technological hurdles prevent this from being an attractive option, but future innovation could make this niche application attractive."

This will be enabled by:

Concern over increased demand and supply constraints of oil
Concern over the polluting consequences of energy consumption
Continued technological innovation in the realm of power storage for electronic devices
Continued development of solar power to a point where it becomes cost competitive with other electrical production methods

Early indicators include:

Development and manufacture of prototype vehicles running on hydrogen fuel cells

What to watch:

Hydrogen-based fuel cells begin to be employed in buses.
Iceland starts to develop a hydrogen economy based on its Hydrogen Economy initiative.
Sales of fuel cell generators start trending upward.

Signals

Producing clean coal via gasification technologies

Alex Soojung-Kim Pang — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 11:10:30 -0700

Description

Technologies such as coal gasification may be employed around the globe to provide the second wave of "clean" fossil fuel energy as countries turn to their own coal deposits to meet growing energy needs.

In recent years, burning coal to produce energy has fallen out of favour given the high levels of air pollution that result. Instead, natural gas has been extensively exploited as the first generation of 'cleaner' fossil fuels, so much so that it may soon join oil as the next important, must-have energy source. But with its rapid adoption have come supply constraints and wildly spiking prices, forcing countries to look for alternative sources to meet their growing energy needs.

In general, Europe is mandating the increased use of renewable energy sources (such as wind, wave, and solar). But currently, these sources are not, in most cases, as economical as fossil fuels, even at gas's fluctuating prices. Other parts of the world are looking back to nuclear energy and to other "clean" fossil fuels. The big winner in the second wave of "cleaner" fossil fuels is likely to be clean coal technology. Globally, the supply of coal is abundant, and it is currently the cheapest source of energy. Technologies such as coal gasification can clean up power plant emissions but have not been widely rolled out because of the large investment necessary and competitive oil prices over the past two decades. With higher sustained oil prices and continuing geopolitical concern around adequate supplies of oil, more countries may turn to their own abundant coal deposits via coal gasification technology to meet their growing energy needs."

This will be enabled by:

Continuing high and volatile electricity prices
Continuing supply constraints on natural gas
Increasing demand for less polluting sources of energy

Early indicators include:

Discussion about coal gasification subsidies in the US Congress

What to watch:

Levels of government support for gasification technology continue to increase.
The fate of old coal power plants nearing the end of life (decommission or upgrade?) is increasingly a topic of public discussion.

Signals

The technology behind coal-gasification ("clean coal")

Future CO2 Emission Reductions from Electricity Generation through Deployment of Carbon Capture and Storage Tech

CCPI Clean Coal Demonstrations | Wabash River Coal Gasification Repowering Project

CCPI Clean Coal Demonstrations | Tampa Electric Integrated Gasification Combined-Cycle Project

Decentralisation of Electrical Power

Alex Soojung-Kim Pang — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 11:10:30 -0700

Description

A variety of parallel advances in materials and miniaturisation may provide more options for powering electrical equipment independently of national grids.

For more than a century, the electric power infrastructure has provided energy for the machinery of industrial and information-based economies. In the next 20 years, new scientific and engineering knowledge may reshape this infrastructure at the edges by shifting key points of power generation to very small portable units. Initially, this trend will be marked by miniaturisation of existing technologies such as fuel cells, gas turbines and photovoltaics. Over time, progress in materials and nanoassembly may permit power generation and storage in a wider range places than is currently possible.

This will be enabled by:

Rise of personal electronics
Increasing density of data storage devices (Moore's Law)
Advent of molecular manufacturing
Economies increasingly feeling the impact of Hubbert's Peak (falling oil production)

Early indicators include:

Announcement by NTT/DoCoMo of the launch of a cell-phone fuel cell for 2007
Forecast by Frost & Sullivan that shipments of micro fuel cells for mobile devices will amount to 120 million units annually by 2010
Successful prototyping of very small lithium-ion batteries for use inside the body
Development of microturbines for power generation

What to watch:

Fuel cells replace batteries in portable electronics.
Solar-powered clothing and clothing containing mechanical power generators comes on the market.

Signals

Continued Growth in Energy Consumption

Alex Soojung-Kim Pang — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 11:10:29 -0700

Description

Energy consumption may to continue to increase worldwide, with a heavy continued reliance on fossil fuels to meet the growing need.

Over the past 15 years, a period generally considered to have exhibited robust global economic growth, the consumption of energy worldwide has increased at about 1.5% per year. Forecasts for the next 20 years suggest energy consumption will grow by 2% per year, far outstripping recent growth. At this rate, the world would double its current consumption of energy in only 36 years. An increased push for greater energy efficiency in the developed world is expected to help curb growth, but the rapid industrialisation of billions of people in Asia, where energy use is less efficient, will probably continue to drive the search for more energy.

Recent price spikes in oil and natural gas suggest that the supply of these two largest energy sources is coming under strain. The expected accelerated growth of energy consumption will further tax supplies. However, the composition of energy sources will probably not vary much in the near to medium term. All current sources of energy will probably continue to be important, with a gradual shift to alternative sources in the industrialised world offset by the rapid energy consumption growth served by fossil fuels in the emerging world.

Oil has plenty of supplies to power our transportation needs for the next century, despite doomsday forecasts, but it is a finite resource and one day will need to be replaced. Coal still has plentiful reserves throughout the world, and the emergence of clean coal technologies is expected to drive a small revival of this once "dirty" fossil fuel. Natural gas is the current energy source of choice for growth, thanks to its relatively clean combustion and largely untapped supplies, but challenges remain in efficiently transporting it to market.

Despite current plentiful reserves of the three primary fossil fuels, infrastructure limitations and the desire for cleaner energy will likely make the use of alternative supplies paramount to meet the rising growth in demand. To put the demand for cleaner energy in perspective, it is estimated that by 2050 the world will need 30 TW yr (TeraWatt years) worth of carbon-free energy production to support a stable atmospheric carbon dioxide level of 400 ppm. For comparison, the world currently consumes about 12 TW yr of energy, and carbon dioxide levels are at 275 ppm. These estimated values are controversial, but even if significantly off, they still paint a picture of a dramatic need for not only more but also cleaner energy supplies.

Wind energy is currently the fastest growing energy source in the world thanks to advances in technology, but limitations on suitable sites will keep wind a modest if significant source of power. Biofuels catch a lot of interesting press, but the sheer size and scale of resources needed to generate large amounts of energy this way will probably keep it a fringe producer at best. Only nuclear and solar power have the potential to dramatically alter the energy supply landscape, as both could potentially produce enormous amounts of energy. The policy dilemma of nuclear power, abundant energy with no air pollution versus radioactive waste disposal, large upfront costs, and catastrophic accident potential, is one for legislators to debate. Expect some countries to eventually follow France's lead and "go nuclear" while the majority look elsewhere. Solar energy is currently cost prohibitive, but if technological improvements and rising prices for other energy sources allow it to become cost competitive, the whole energy landscape could change. Hydrogen and cold fusion are wildcards: are unlikely to materialise but they could have a profound impact if they did."

This will be enabled by:

"Rapid economic growth in the emerging world (especially Asia)
Higher prices for oil, leading to greater investment in oil extraction techniques and allowing supply to eventually rise to meet increased demand"

Early indicators include:

Price spikes in oil and natural gas
Increasing demand in the industrialised world for cleaner energy technologies

What to watch:

Solar energy technology breakthroughs make this clean source of power cost competitive.

Signals

Fossil Fuels and the Future of Energy Consumption

Alex Soojung-Kim Pang — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 11:10:29 -0700

Description

Energy consumption may to continue to increase worldwide, with a heavy continued reliance on fossil fuels to meet the growing need.

Over the past 15 years, a period generally considered as showing robust global economic growth, the consumption of energy worldwide has increased at about 1.5% per year. Forecasts for the next 20 years suggest energy consumption will grow by 2% per year, far outstripping recent growth. At this rate, the world would double its current consumption of energy in only 36 years. An increased push for greater energy efficiency in the developed world is expected to help curb growth, but the rapid industrialisation of billions of people in Asia, where energy use is less efficient, will probably continue to drive the search for more energy.

This will be enabled by:

Rapid economic growth in the emerging world (especially Asia) drives increased energy demand
Higher prices for oil lead to greater investment in oil extraction techniques allowing supply to eventually rise to increased demand

Early indicators include:

What to watch:

Future consumption of energy statistics by source
Keep an eye on potential solar energy breakthrough technologies making it cost competitive

Signals

Intensified Research into Fusion Power

Alex Soojung-Kim Pang — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 11:10:29 -0700

Description

Fusion could be the answer to the world's energy needs. ITER, a $5bn experimental reactor will come on-line in about a decade but success is not guaranteed.

When small atomic nuclei combine to form larger nuclei, energy is released. This "fusion energy" is what powers the sun. Hydrogen bombs generate energy by fusion but more controlled fusion reactions are harder to achieve. Huge electrostatic forces between nuclei must be overcome before the nuclei can fuse. This requires the nuclei to be travelling very fast. It is relatively straight forward to induce fusion in the laboratory but it has so far proved extremely difficult to do so in a way that releases more energy than was required to induce the fusion reaction.

If a self-sustaining fusion reaction could be achieved it would make a very attractive energy source. The deuterium (H2) and helium-3 (He3) fuel required is abundantly available. Although the by-product is tritium (H3) which is a radioactive gas, it decays quickly (the radioactivity is short-lived) and so poses less of a disposal problem than radioactive waste from existing (fission) nuclear reactors.

Attempts to develop fusion reactors have been pursued since the 1950s. Most of these have involved containing the fuel in a magnetic field. The magnetic field can be used to heat up the fuel to temperatures of over 100 million °C (so the nuclei will be travelling fast enough when they meet) and to squeeze the fuel into a dense volume to allow nuclei to come into contact with one another. It also prevents the hot fuel from touching the sides of the container (which it would vaporise). Usually, the magnets are formed into a torus (doughnut) shape and the fuel injected into the circular tube created by this arrangement. Alternative approaches include using super-powerful lasers directed uniformly at all sides of a pellet of fuel create the heat and density needed to initiate fusion.

Two approaches to "cold fusion" have also been explored. As the main engineering problem in fusion is the containment of the hot plasma, a fusion reaction that takes place at room temperatures would make the technology a lot more accessible. The reported discovery of fusion reactions in a test-tube containing water and platinum electrode have proved to be difficult to reproduce and the claim is now thoroughly discredited and receives little attention. On the other hand, after initial scepticism, reports of fusion reactions taking place in the course of experiments to explore the puzzling phenomenon of 'sonoluminescence" are now being taken more seriously. However, there is as yet no consensus that fusion is occurring in these experiments and no conception at the moment of what technological development of the phenomenon would involve. Conceivably though, when the results are confirmed and explained theoretically, a new avenue of fusion research may be opened.

The main effort towards fusion power technology has, since the 1950s, involved toroidal "hot" fusion reactors. A European project called JET (Joint European Torus) achieved controlled fusion but the energy input was greater than the output. JET has been superseded by a new international project called ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor). France will host the $5 billion facility and construction will commence imminently and should be completed in 2016. $7 billion has been earmarked for operating costs and decommissioning after its 30-year life span.

Engineers and scientists in the field are optimistic about ITER but, as a result of long experience, they remain circumspect about the prospects for success. Economic fusion, engineers will tell you, is just 30 years away. The problem is, it has been 30 years away since the 1950s."

This will be enabled by:

Increased funding for research into fusion technology
Increasing world need for massive supplies of nonpolluting energy

Early indicators include:

Announcement of France as the site of ITER

What to watch:

"Progress at ITER is rapid, encouraging further funding.
Scientists at ITER run up against unforeseen hurdles, increasing the cost of the research and the likelihood of it being shelved.

Leaders: France (the home of ITER)
US, Japan, EU, China, Russia, Switzerland, South Korea (supporters of ITER)

Signals

Solar: The Energy Wild Card

Alex Soojung-Kim Pang — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 11:10:29 -0700

Description

Solar is the wild card of all energy sources, offering the potential to meet most of our energy needs once technological breakthroughs make the cost competitive.

Solar energy has been the great potential answer to the world's energy problems for decades now, but the technology to harness the sun has yet to arrive. If technological advances and rising oil prices continue apace, solar's potential might finally be realized within the next 20 years.

The sun is the one source that can supply most of the world's energy indefinitely. Other renewable sources can only partially help to meet our energy needs, as they lack the potential to scale to terawatts of electricity (nuclear is a partial exception, but the supply of uranium is finite as well). For all the promise of solar energy, it remains inhibited by economics -- it is currently not cost effective enough to compete with other energy sources. It has thus far been generated using expensive silicon-based solar cells, which produce the highest efficiencies but at the highest cost. Using cheaper organic materials or plastics improves the cost equation significantly but leads to much lower efficiencies and essentially the same unattractive cost-efficiency ratios. New advances, however, in thin-film and "dirty" silicon manufacturing -- in which lower-grade silicon is made more efficient -- indicate future economic parity between solar and other, non-renewable sources of energy. Over the past few decades, solar's manufacturing costs have been falling at more than three percent per year, but even at the elevated energy prices of 2005, solar energy still has a long way to go before becoming cost competitive.

One problem with solar and other intermittent renewable energy sources (like wind) is their inability to generate power around the clock and at the same levels in all locations. These challenges point to the need to capture or store energy at the production site and then transport it elsewhere for later consumption. Currently, the best medium to store and transport solar energy is hydrogen, used not as an energy source per se but as a storage medium that can be unlocked with a fuel cell. Special solar facilities that create hydrogen via hydrolysis, once cost effective, will bring new levels of cost, storage, and transport efficiency to solar power. More significantly, they will usher in the hydrogen economy. Until then, no other energy source can provide the massive energy production potential to power the hydrogen economy.

In the near term, solar energy production is likely to continue to be tied to the prevalence of government subsidies. Given its cost, even if subsidised, solar will still make up only a small fraction of the world's total energy production. Nearly all of these subsidies will be in the industrialised world. The largest consumers of new energy, the emerging world, will continue to follow the cheapest energy sources for growth. In the longer term, this could mean widespread use of decentralized solar systems as growth economies realize the cost benefits of a distributed power grid. The emerging world has the potential to leapfrog the industrialized world in developing more efficient and reliable energy infrastructures."

This will be enabled by:

"Increased spending on research, resulting in technological breakthroughs in solar energy production and storage
Increased government subsidies
Dwindling oil supplies"

Early indicators include:

"Infusion of government funds into solar energy research during the Carter Administration in the US, followed by research coming to a standstill as a result of budget cuts in the programme during the Reagan years"

What to watch:

"A renewed focus on solar research in the media indicates technological breakthroughs are being made to bridge the cost gap.
Government subsidies are once again pumped into solar production.
California's new million solar roof legislation, which would require that half of all new homes in the state come equipped with solar cells. The project is expected to bring online 3,000 MW of power by 2018.
Research breakthroughs bring down the cost of silicon-based solar cells and increase the efficiency of organic-based cells.

Leaders: Germany, Japan

Signals

Abundant Oil for the Next Century

Alex Soojung-Kim Pang — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 11:10:29 -0700

Description

Despite current high oil prices and dire predictions about supply, there may be enough oil to meet the world's energy needs for the next century.

In 1969, M. King Hubbert, a pre-eminent US geologist, made a series of predictions regarding oil production. Hubbert theorized that oil production would follow a bell-shaped curve. The apex of the curve, known as Hubbert's Peak, marked when a country or region would be producing its maximum output. Hubbert predicted that US oil production would peak in the early 1970s, a prediction that was reasonably accurate. Given the accuracy of this prediction, many are now concerned over Hubbert's prediction that world oil production would peak in 2000. If true, it would mean that we will soon see the rapid decline of oil as a readily available energy resource, with dramatic consequences for the world economy.

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), there are reserves containing approximately 2.9 trillion barrels of oil in the world, with 1.28 trillion barrels of that oil in reserves currently labelled as 'proven'. These estimates vary depending upon the methodologies used, but even the most conservative estimates show at least 2.0 trillion barrels. From the industry's behaviour to date, we can surmise that as the price of oil rises, more investment will be made in oil (and synfuels) extraction, increasing the extractable reserves.

EIA also estimates current world oil consumption at around 85 million barrels per day, rising to about 119 million barrels per day in 2025 (a 1.9% annual increase). At current consumption rates, the world has nearly 40 years of proven oil reserves left and nearly 92 years of total reserves. In 2025, assuming no increases in proven or total reserves, it is estimated that the world will have enough proven reserves to last until 2037 and enough total reserves until 2076. Any additional oil reserves uncovered or technological enhancements that allow for a larger percentage of oil to be extracted from existing reserves will increase these figures.

Predictions that the world is running out of oil are not incorrect, but end of extractable oil is probably not imminent. Most energy experts expect oil prices to gradually recede from the price spikes seen in 2004-05. Yet, given the rapid industrialization of China and other Asian countries, the increased demand for oil may create a new floor for cheap oil (in the $30s a barrel instead of the upper $20s), and oil will likely show a gradual long-term rise in price with continued short-term volatility. While there seems to be no need to panic about running out of oil, beginning to explore alternatives also seems prudent."

This will be enabled by:

"Technological innovations in oil discovery and extraction that enable unearthing additional reserves and increasing production at existing sites
Continued development of synfuels, alleviating demands on pure oil reserves
Hubbert's predictions of oil production in the US, showing the rapid decline of supply in what was once the world's largest producer
Historical large spikes in oil prices followed by periods of sustained low prices as investment pours in chasing higher prices"

Early indicators include:

Predictions by M. King Hubbert about oil production and estimates by the US Energy Information Administration regarding oil consumption and amount available in reserves

What to watch:

"A return to oil below $35-40 a barrel signals plenty of supplies for the foreseeable future.
High oil prices sustained over several years severely retard economic growth and indicate that supply is having difficulty keeping up with growing demand.
Saudi Arabia cannot significantly increase oil production during periods of high prices, signaling a rough production ceiling of world oil supply.
Continued rapid economic growth, especially in China and other emerging Asian economies, strains global oil supply.

Leaders: Saudi Arabia

Institutions:

OPEC
US Energy Information Administration
BP Global (Statistical Review of World Energy)

Signals

Oil's Slow-Motion Crisis

Alex Soojung-Kim Pang — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 11:10:29 -0700

Description

Estimates of how much oil the world has left vary, as do scenarios for phasing out its use. One thing is certain: as a fossil fuel, oil is a finite resource and its end will come, sooner or later, planned for or not.

How much oil does the world have left, and how should it be used? These are currently matters of great debate, with some experts predicting that new discovery and extraction technologies will continue this current age of abundant oil and others foreseeing global shortages and rising prices in the near future, barring the discovery of massive (or many) new fields. Complicating the debate are political and environmental considerations, such as the question of the climatic effects of burning every last drop of oil on earth, even if it could be extracted. Governments may grapple in coming decades with the question of where to focus effort and resources: on discovering and extracting more oil, on developing strategies for ending oil dependence and transitioning to other energy sources before a supply crisis forces the issue, or on some mix of both.

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), there are approximately 2.9 trillion barrels of oil in world reserves, with 1.28 trillion barrels of that oil in reserves currently labelled as 'proven" (that is, economically recoverable with current technology). More conservative estimates put the theoretical, non-proven worldwide supply at 2 trillion barrels. But oil reserve estimates are notoriously unreliable and are impacted by many factors, such as nations overstating their supply for political gain or understating their supply due to lack of knowledge, historically reliable fields showing precipitous drops in output as they age, and the effectiveness and economic feasibility of future discovery and extraction methods being currently unknowable. On the demand side, EIA estimates current world oil consumption at around 85 million barrels per day, rising to about 119 million barrels per day in 2025 (a 1.9% annual increase). Given a continued 1.9% annual growth in oil consumption, the world will have exhausted its 'proven' oil reserves by 2037. With current technology, 'total reserves' will be depleted anywhere between 2047 and 2060.

Meanwhile, other energy experts expect oil prices to gradually recede from the price spikes seen in 2004-05. Supply, they say, will continue to rise with demand. Saudi Aramco, for example, predicts output of 12.5 million barrels per day, up from 9.5 million barrels today, on the way to 15 million barrels per day of sustained output. Optimists also point to previous claims of oil's imminent end -- most recently, in the 1980s -- as evidence that we will overcome any potential peak with new technology and oil-rich geographies, as has happened in the past. Still, given the rapid industrialisation of China and other Asian countries, even optimists predict that the increased demand for oil will likely create a new floor for cheap oil (in the $30s a barrel instead of the upper $20s), and that oil may show a gradual long-term rise in price with continued short-term volatility.

Synthetic oil made from tar shales, which become more feasible to mine as the price of oil rises, will help mitigate the withdrawal. Some oil optimists believe that synthetic oil will replace natural oil entirely, essentially eliminating any negative effects from natural oil's end. But since creating synthetic oil is a heavily polluting activity that requires one barrel of natural gas per four barrels of oil produced -- and since synthetic oil's success would presumably correspond with high fossil fuel prices -- governments may more quickly move toward other sources of energy.

While some claim that there will be plenty of oil for the foreseeable future, others paint a different reality. One possible scenario: as realisation of 'peak oil' emerges around 2020, prices will rise markedly, consumption will fall accordingly, and the market will allocate the remaining oil to critical uses such as air travel and commercial shipping. Governments and economies that have not planned for a transition to renewable energy sources will face an accelerated crisis as oil's end moves out of slow-motion."

This will be enabled by:

Technological innovations in oil discovery and extraction that enable unearthing additional reserves and increasing production at existing sites
Rising global demand for oil

Early indicators include:

"Prediction by US geologist M. King Hubbert that US oil production would peak in the early 1970s, which was reasonably accurate
Acrimonious debate in the US over drilling for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge
Promulgation of an energy policy in the US still heavily dependent on fossil fuels
Proposal of a strategy by energy consultant Amory Lovins for the US and the world to 'win the oil endgame'"

What to watch:

"High oil prices sustained over several years severely retard economic growth and indicate that supply is having difficulty keeping up with growing demand.
Saudi Arabia cannot significantly increase oil production during periods of high prices, signaling a rough production ceiling of world oil supply.
Continued rapid economic growth, especially in China and other emerging Asian economies, strains global oil supply.

Signals

Wind Energy: Growing in Competitiveness

Alex Soojung-Kim Pang — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 11:10:29 -0700

Description

Thanks to technological improvements, wind energy is likely to continue to be the fastest growing major energy source over the next several years, but it will probably not displace oil, coal, natural gas, nuclear, or hydroelectric as a top energy producer for at least the next 20 years.

Despite their promise and backing from those desiring clean energy, renewable energy sources have suffered from being uneconomical when compared to dirtier fossil fuels and a method of 'storing" energy produced, to give a constant supply regardless of external conditions, still has not been developed. Recently, though, as a result of dramatic technological improvements, including larger blades, rotating bases to align with wind direction, and automated optimisation software, wind energy has started to compete with fossil fuels in some instances and in the UK is cheaper to produce than nuclear energy. In fact, wind has become the single fastest growing energy source in the US (growing nearly 25% per year over the past 5 years) and in the world.

Still, the rapid growth of wind energy is only helping to dent the need for more fossil fuels, because its phenomenal growth rate is from a small base. (Five years ago, wind energy was competing with solar for the title of smallest producer of energy worldwide among the ten major energy sources.) In the US, the net increase in wind energy from 1998 to 2003 was just 1/20 of the net energy increase from either oil or coal over that same period and the UK wind power industry produces just over 1000mw, enough to power a quarter of the homes in London. But with world energy prices on the rise and concerns about energy security, the attractiveness of wind from an economic and environmental standpoint will continue to drive its robust adoption. Only if oil prices drop back to lower levels, massive liquefied natural gas infrastructure is built, or the global economy suffers a severe recession will the growth prospects of wind be deflated.

The emergence of wind as an economically competitive energy source has fueled the rise of numerous new wind farms around the world, but wind farm development is not without its drawbacks and opposition. Many local activists find the farms unappealing because they damage views, while others are concerned about possible damage to bird populations that stray into the propellers. Such environmental impacts, as well as concerns about noise, have been eased with larger, quieter turbines and new offshore developments. Denmark draws roughly 20% of its power from wind energy, mostly offshore, and though this is currently more expensive than land-based installations, costs are expected to decline with increased scale and technological advancement. A plan for a wind farm off the coast of Massachusetts, though slowed by local opposition, promises to supply three-fourths of the power necessary for the surrounding region at costs similar to those of more traditional energy sources.

Despite its healthy growth prospects, wind energy will not be the panacea for the world's energy problems. Many of the most obvious wind energy sites have been exploited. Marginal sites will only come online alongside advances in decentralized power grids, more economical energy storage, and more dependable energy allocation methods -- all to help alleviate wind's intermittent nature. Nonetheless, wind energy is expected to join clean coal and liquefied natural gas as the three main 'cleaner' alternatives to current energy production. If energy prices remain high, wind energy might even grow to the point of meeting 1% of the world's energy needs (up from just 0.1% today)."

This will be enabled by:

"Continued R&D investment by large entities and subsequent technological improvements, further lowering the cost of generating wind energy
Increasing local and global concern about global warming"

Early indicators include:

"Recent and continued investment of large conglomerate and energy firms in wind production, replacing many smaller independent pioneers"

What to watch:

"Growth of offshore wind farms indicates the economic feasibility of wind as an energy source even at a higher cost.
Wind energy is a large beneficiary as the debate over global warming intensifies and the public demands action.
Research is undertaken into how to mitigate the damage done to bird populations by wind farms.

Leaders: Europe and the US: Germany, Denmark, UK

Institutions:

General Electric
International Energy Agency
Sandia National Labs
Windward Engineering
US National Wind Technology Center
University of Massachusetts, Renewable Energy Research Lab
World Wind Energy Association