From signals to forecasts

From signals to forecasts

We have a couple of drupal people working hard on implementing our changes (esp. in signals creation) so expect to see exciting stuff on the site soon!

One of the big redesign directions is clarifying how signals get incorporated into forecasts. Right now, the intermediate structure of "hypotheses" is being severely underused. Going through the existing content on the site, as well as the goals of the distributed forecasting project. It seems that:

-signals should be short reports that include implications for broader future change
-signals can be associated by many automated means - user visits, tags, references in groups, but there needs to be a mechanism by which humans can mark signals as somehow associated. We need to be able to link together signals in different disciplines that speak to a larger theme.
-proposal: signals can be grouped into SETS, which are like labeled playlists of interesting signals that any user can create. For instance, one set could be "Abhay Sukumaran's list of signals every DIY biologist should read".
- signals could also be grouped into POOLS, which are collaboratively constructed sets. POOLS would often form the basis of forecasts
-forecasts would be collaboratively constructed and continuously evolving, like wiki entries. They would reference signals, but instead of being merely thematic aggregations, they might be inspired indirectly by signal pools or sets, and would serve as meaningful frames for thinking about the future.

Thoughts on signals, sets, pools, forecasts structure?

~abhay


Comments

Attila Csordas's picture

visualizing signals-hypotheses-forecasts

Have you ever thought of visualizing these structures for the sake of easy navigation and pattern recognition? As all those entities are text based I am thinking about a visualization tool like the TouchGraph Browser http://www.touchgraph.com/TGGoogleBrowser.html This way all the different kind of entities could be visualized in 1 screen based on their tags, references, creators, derivations (signal-forecast)...et cetera.