Dear All,
I am Attila Csordas, steward of the Biomedical Sciences and Biotechnology Group and participated in a pilot game earlier this year. I'd like to start a new forum topic about how to fit the X2 site and the prediction market games together. What structures are already in that can support the games and what more are needed.
As Abhay emphasized:
some of the ideas on the horizon in the near term are --
- redesigning the signals entry and viewing interface
- introducing our first games into the site
- having groups that allow peer-to-peer discussions
I'd like to concentrate on the games here. I really enjoyed the pilot game back this spring and I think that the X2 site's main attraction and novelty will really be the game if it launches finally.
Looking forward to your thoughts,
Attila Csordas
Comments
game analysis and directions
Good to hear from you!
Just to check.. is the pilot game you referred to, the one conducted in a workshop on the inkling platform?
http://inklingmarkets.com/
The games section is a *major* part of what the sponsors are interested in, and I agree that it takes X2 from aggregation of signals into much greater engagement with the signal and forecast material.
The actual design of the game and its integration with the X2 platform is still in the initial stages, but at the most basic levels games will provide a "virtual forecasting playground" where players will engage with scenarios of the future that are sourced from the x2 forecasts.
It would be great if you described your pilot game experience for the X2 community and told us a bit more about what you liked about it.
~abhay
my pilot game experience
Hi Abhay,
I participated in the 22 February workshop held at Palo Alto where we actually played a Superstruct like game from within the X2 site. By Superstruct I mean that we figured out possible technological advancements for the year 2019 and bet on these scenarios that are probably going to happen or are not going to happen by 2019. I especially liked that we had the options to create best and worst-case scenarios too and I think that people's abilities, motivations and skills might be different along best and worst case lines. Also we had to write down a plan on how we imagine our career path and what kind of position we think we would be in by 2019 and that personal part is also an attractive way to get people involved in the game.
Before the workshop I hadn't heard of the concept of prediction markets at all but I instantly understood and embraced the idea of it, as the inkling platform says:
"a prediction market is a way to ask for people's opinions and average them all together to predict something happening in the future.
The term "market" is used because possible answers to a question are represented as stocks. If you think an answer is correct, you buy stock in it. If you think it is incorrect, you sell. People buying and selling shares makes the stock prices go up and down. Each stock price represents the consensus opinion on what the chances are of that answer being correct. For example, if an answer (stock) has a price of $30, we say that answer has a 30% chance or 3 in 10 chance of happening."
When playing the game people can use their technological imaginations, i.e. their creative ideas backed by their knowledge of different fields and also their analytical, critical skills when evaluating the stocks. If organized and designed well a game like this can truly have an impact on the future and that is why it really worth building this site and playing the game.
Attila
Hoorah!
We're so glad to have X2ers in Superstruct.
See you in 2019!
Prediction Market Game
Dear Attila,
Sounds very interesting. Would you please tell me a little more about the prediction market game? How did you set up and run it?