Forecasts based on reflections on Darlene Cavalier’s signal [1].

Note: labels like progressive, conservative, etc., are controversial, but I think that we can work with them since most of the time the concerned people apply those tags to themselves.

Signals:

- the main candidates to the federal Executive Power head position support the idea of a link vaccines-autism

- some federal lawmakers support that link and request hearings on it and put pressure in the Executive Power departments

- some lawmakers moved a bill to ban bisphenol A (BPA) from children’s products [2] a day after FDA’s release stating [3]:

“[FDA’s] position is consistent with two risk assessments for BPA conducted by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) Scientific Panel on Food Additives, Flavourings, Processing Aids and Materials in Contact with Food and the Japanese National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology. Each of these documents considered the question of a possible low-dose effect and concluded that no current health risk exists for BPA at the current exposure level.”

- autism sufferers’ parents, like all parents of children with incurable diseases, are specially prone to biases regarding pharmaceutical technologies and processes

- scientists entered politics with gusto (a single senior NASA scientist is interviewed thousands of times per year)

- federal departments cannot withstand the tide [1]

- in Western nations, the slow erosion of old rationalism since the 1960s is growing:

- for some moralists, philosophers and scientists, causality is not as strong as it was (quantum mechanics entanglement, Heisenberg principle, &c.)
- the vocabulary of truth is obsolete and inadequate for the task
- speaking of truth is not only outmoded, the real problem is truth itself – maybe we all live in a simulation

- in the same geographical area, traditional morals of personal responsibility and absolute rules are greatly diminished; on its wake, a new morality appears

- a significant part of the population believes there is a conspiracy (more or less comprehensive) to cover failures up (e.g. toxicity of drugs), and series like The X Files can be defended as a portrait of the real world with a straight face

- private firms’ research efforts are suspicious for a significat part of the population in the West

- one of the biggest titles in print in China is “a tale of freedom and self-discovery […] about a Beijing student living with Mongolian nomads during the Cultural Revolution.” [4]

"Wolf Totem" examines the relationship between man and nature by tracing the story of […] a student sent to live with nomadic shepherds in the 1960s. As part of his spiritual journey, Chen Zhen tries to raise a wolf cub. The [translator] said he was fascinated by the novel's intellectual and philosophical depth [...]. "The episode of him raising the wolf cub – parts of that almost had me in tears, it was so sad. And then, the sadness of the ecological disaster that ultimately and inevitably occurs," he said by phone from Beijing.

"The wolves are seen as team players, strategic thinkers," she said. "Wolves don't kill too many sheep, they don't kill too many people, they live in harmony with the environment. They don't pillage the environment for short-term gains."

- primate rights are being proposed in several jurisdictions; killing animals, considered until recently part of man’s rights over what was considered his realm, is becoming morally dubious [5]:

[...] cows, pigs, chickens, turkeys and fish, each a unique individual capable of experiencing happiness, joy, loneliness, and frustration [...].

- plants have also ethical rights [6]

Countervailing forces:

- some federal lawmakers are greatly opposed to the previous signals
- most lawmakers are skeptical of the allegations of cover-up conspiracies
- most scientists and scientific organizations are skeptical too
- the citizen scientists overwhelmingly believe that physical laws are something that can be studied and learned
- most engineers are traditionally religious, and simultaneously want progress as understood before the recent era of ecological concerns – in some way, they connect the traditional part of society with modernity, and as a consequence assuage some of the worries of
- Asian societies keep traditional moral criteria for the most part, which includes greater confidence in scientists and scientific organizations, specially when they are government-supported
- medical advances are very popular in the news – people connect with solutions to their ailments and forgive some of the costs
- the threat of food scarcity makes peasants very understanding of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides, and willing to experiment with genetically engineered crops.

Neutral forces (work in both directions, cancelling themselves):

- in most areas outside the West religions are getting stronger and more conservative regarding traditional rules and absolute values [7]
- this religiosity comes with skepticism of some parts of science, like Darwinism

My forecast is that the next couple of decades will see that:

- the trend to greater sentimentalism will be almost universal, including the Orthodox area of influence, Buddhist countries (including Japan), Hinduist areas and China – exception will be most Muslim societies;

- greater support for deconstructionism, relativism, &c. will grow everywhere, not only in the West;

- man will loose the privileged position in Nature in countries where now that position is supported by the customary mind-set: primates rights will gain acceptance, and plant rights will be discussed approvingly, although supporters will not get the desired legislation;

- popular pressure on scientific panels/organizations to produce reports and recommendations that will include the concerns of those that see rationalism as a fundamentalism to be discarded will succeed;

- there will be greater legislative interference with those panels/organizations;

- distrust of scientific procedures and organizations will grow;

- there will be a decline of the citizen scientist;

- there will be a weak reaction to defend old rationalist ideology – the scientific establishment will try to introduce more science in the classroom, programs to popularize science will proliferate, &c., but won’t change the general direction.

J M

References

[1] Darlene Cavalier: Public Participation in Science Policy. Science X2, Fri, May 09, 2008. http://sciencex2.org/en/node/17682

[2] Senator SCHUMER (for himself, Mrs. FEINSTEIN, Mrs. CLINTON, Mr. DURBIN, Mr. KERRY, and Mr. MENENDEZ): BPA-Free Kids Act of 2008 (S 2928 IS). April 29, 2008: "To ban bisphenol A in children's products." http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d110:s.02928:

[3] FDA: Bisphenol A (BPA). Apr 28, 2009. http://www.fda.gov/oc/opacom/hottopics/bpa.html

[4] Of wolves and men: China bestseller debuts in English. Kuwait Times, Mar 13, 2008. http://www.kuwaittimes.net/read_news.php?newsid=NDA0NjIzMDk=. About “Wolf Totem.”

[5] Choose vegetarian: http://www.chooseveg.com. Seen May 12, 2008.

Every year approximately 26 billion cows, pigs, chickens, turkeys and fish, each a unique individual capable of experiencing happiness, joy, loneliness, and frustration, are killed to satisfy America's appetite for animal flesh, milk, and eggs. Fortunately, each one of us has the power to help end this suffering by simply choosing to eat vegetarian.

[6] Integrity and Rights of Plants: Ethical Notions in Organic Plant Breeding and Propagation. Edith T. Lammerts Van Bueren1 and Paul C. Struik2. Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics, volume 18, no 5 / September, 2005. http://www.springerlink.com/content/p623832731xt3101/

1 Louis Bolk Institute, Hoofdstraat 24, 3972 Driebergen, LA, The Netherlands
2 Plant Sciences Group, Crop and Weed Ecology, Wageningen University, Haarweg 333, 6709 Wageningen, RZ, The Netherlands

Abstract
In addition to obviating the use of synthetic agrochemicals and emphasizing farming in accordance with agro-ecological guidelines, organic farming acknowledges the integrity of plants as an essential element of its natural approaches to crop production. For cultivated plants, integrity refers to their inherent nature, wholeness, completeness, species-specific characteristics, and their being in balance with their (organically farmed) environment, while accomplishing their “natural aim.” We argue that this integrity of plants has ethical value, distinguishing integrity of life, plant-typic integrity, genotypic integrity, and phenotypic integrity. We have developed qualitative criteria to ethically evaluate existing practices and have applied these criteria to assess whether current plant breeding and propagation techniques violate the integrity of crop plants. This process has resulted in a design of a holistic, scientific approach of organic plant breeding and seed production. Our evaluation has met considerable criticism from mainstream (crop) scientists. We respond to the following questions: (1). Can ethics be incorporated into objective crop sciences? (2). What is the nature of the intrinsic value of plants in organic farming? We argue that criteria to take integrity into account can only be assessed from a holistic perspective and we show that a holistic approach is needed to design such ethical notions in a consistent way. The ethical notions have been further elaborated by formulating human responsibility and respect towards crop plants. Responsibility and respect can only be shown by providing crop plants the right to be nurtured and to express natural behavior at all levels of integrity.

Key words: integrity - intrinsic value - natural aim - naturalness - organic breeding - organic plant propagation - plant rights – respect

[7] Eliza Griswold: God’s Country. The Atlantic, Apr 2008. http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200803/nigeria